江苏省节能减排影响因素及其效应比较

Analysis and Comparison of Influencing Factors on Energy Saving and CO_2 Reductions for Jiangsu Province

文章以江苏省为考察对象,研究了经济增长、产业结构变动、能源技术进步和能源消费结构等因素对能源消费的CO2排放的影响,采用Laspeyres指数完全分解技术对江苏省6部门终端能源消费及其CO2排放的变动情况进行分解。结果显示:①经济增长的规模效应是能源消费及CO2排放逐年增长的主要原因,占68.92%;②产业结构变动的节能减排作用相对较小,且呈阶段性变化的特征,1995年-2002年间,产业结构调整起到了节能减排的作用,而其后起反向作用,其根源在于高耗能产业投资效应与前期能源投入的提前透支及其滞后影响;③高能源依赖的产业结构对能源消费与CO2排放起到推动作用,产业结构的节能减排效应弱化;④技术进步与能源消费结构的优化调整对节能减排起到了主导作用,节能减排贡献度分别达到了-15.1%、-12.3%,其中高耗能工业部门结构比重与能源效率的微弱变动都对整体节能减排产生很大的影响;⑤在产业结构调整、能源技术进步、能源结构优化和投资结构控制等方面提出相应的建议。

By taking energy consumption of Jiangsu Province as a research subject,factors affecting energy consumption and CO2 reductions were carefully examined in this paper,including economic scale,industrial structure change,and energy structure and its efficiency.This paper analyzed such factors based on the Laspeyres index-based complete decomposition method.It was drawn that the economic growth is the major factor affecting energy consumption growth and CO2 emission change,whose contribution ratio reached as large as 68.92%.However,the energy-saving effect of industrial structural adjustment is not obvious,showing an increasing trend with variability.It was also found that the industrial restructuring played a prominent role in energy conservation from 1995 to 2002,but showed a negative effect on the subsequent period.It was indicated that the highly resource-dependent industrial structure and its investment effect stimulated energy consumption owing to the previous overdraft and its lag effects.The structural change showed a weakened effect.Technological progress and energy consumption structural adjustment also played an important role in energy conservation.The energy efficiency effect was estimated to be -15.1%,and the energy consumption structural effect was -12.3%.Slight changes in the proportion of industrial structure and its energy efficiency significantly affected the overall energy saving.At last,this paper provides some policy implications,such as industrial structure adjustment,energy structure optimization and energy efficiency elevation.