基于LMDI的江苏省能源消费总量增长效应分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Energy Intensity Growth in Jiangsu Province Based on LMDI

2002年以来,随着江苏省经济的快速发展,能源消费总量增长速度逐步加快,而省内能源供给远远小于需求,能源保障势必影响江苏省经济的可持续发展。因此,为全面分析江苏省能源消费增长的影响因素,本文从六大行业的能源消费入手,采用LMDI模型把江苏省1996年-2008年能源消费总量的增长的效应分解为生产效应、结构效应和强度效应。效应分解与分析结果表明:生产效应是促进能源消费增长的最主要因素,而强度效应对能源消费增长的抑制作用是江苏省近年来能源消费增长放缓的主要原因,结构调整带来的结构效应对能源消费增长的抑制作用还未显现出来;另一方面,工业尤其是高耗能行业生产效应的增长是江苏省能源消费强度增长的主要因素。因此,要降低江苏省能源消费强度,实现经济的可持续发展,应完善相应的法律和政策,调整产业结构、转变经济增长方式,提高能源利用效率,发展新能源和可再生能源。

With the rapid development of economy,the growth of total energy consumption in Jiangsu Province has progressively accelerated since 2002.However,the energy supply is far less than the demand.Energy supply security can affect sustainable development of Jiangsu＇s economy.According to statistics,the output value of the secondary industry accounts for 55% of GDP in 2008.To that end,the secondary industry is the most important sector of the Jiangsu＇s economic structure.However,its energy consumption accounts for as much as 82.43% of the total energy consumption.To unravel the obstacles and potential ways for energy-saving and reducing the total energy consumption,the authors made an attempt to comprehensively analyze influencing factors of energy consumption by examining the total energy consumption and respective energy consumption of six sectors in Jiangsu from 1996 to 2008.Then,the growth effects of the total energy consumption was decomposed into production effect,structural effect and intensity effect using the logarithmic mean Divisia index（LMDI）.Results showed that the production effect is the most critical factor stimulating energy consumption growth.But the intensity effect is the only factor inhibiting energy consumption growth in Jiangsu and a primary reason for decreased energy consumption.It was found that the inhibition effect of the structural effects from structural adjustment has not been emerged.This is because the proportion of the high energy-consuming industry is too large.On the other hand,the growth of the industry effect particularly the growth of high energy-consuming industries is the major factor responsible for the growth of energy consumption.Along with the strengthened production effect of rapid expansion,the structural effect also shows the effect of stimulating energy consumption growth.Therefore,to reduce energy consumption intensity of Jiangsu Province and achieve long-term economic sustainable development,it is suggested that appropriate laws and policies be formulated to encourage the development of low-carbon and green economy,and to develop a reasonable assessment of the green GDP index.In the meantime,the industrial structure should be adjusted,the economic growth modes should be upgraded to an energy-saving one and substantial efforts should be made in energy technology research and development,particularly in developing new and renewable energy.