中国进出口贸易的生态足迹核算

Ecological Footprint Accounting of China's Import and Export Trade

本文将生态足迹核算方法运用于进出口贸易的可持续发展研究。计算了我国1994年-2007年进出口贸易的生态足迹,分析该时段中国对外贸易生态足迹的动态变化规律以及结构的合理性,从而说明其发展的可持续性。研究发现:1994年-2007年期间,中国进出口贸易结构逐渐优化。出口的商品中初级资源类商品逐渐减少,电子通讯、电气机械等产品的出口不断增长,而进口的商品中能源类产品和林木的增长迅速。我国已经从自然资源的净输出国转化为净输入国,且输入的生态足迹逐年增长。可以认为中国现阶段的对外贸易状况是有利于改善本国生态的。对Stefan Gossling等的研究成果进行整理后发现,2002年全球七大贸易区中北美和其他欧洲地区存在贸易盈余,其余五大贸易区均为贸易赤字。其中西欧的赤字最大(-0.49亿hm2),亚太地区最小(-0.02亿hm2),整个亚太地区的贸易可持续性还需加强。中国作为亚太地区最大的贸易国,更应关注贸易的可持续性。

With the rapid development of international trade in China,people pay increasingly more attention to the assessment of sustainable development in the field of international trade.The ecological footprint（EF） indicator can be used to quantify the ecological sustainability of a nation or a region,and it can also be used to calculate trade footprint.Based on ecological deficit or surplus,one can judge whether the international trade is sustainable.Compared with other methods,the ecological footprint indicator is easier to understand and more convenient to calculate.This paper aims to improve the ecological footprint model by introducing embodied energy as a complement.There is some merchandise which cannot be transformed into ecologically productive lands directly,such as chemicals and metals.By estimating the embodied energy in these products,one can measure their energy footprint further which is the most important part of EF components.The authors translated from value in dollars and tones to units of global hectares in examining the sustainability of trade,and analyzed dynamic changes in China＇s trade and the structure of China＇s trade during the period 1994 to 2007.By interpreting the data of China＇s international trade flows from 1994 to 2007,it was found that GDP and total volume of imports and exports kept growing,especially since the 21st century,with showing a progressively optimizing trade structure.In the exported goods,primary resources and goods were decreasing,and goods of electronic communications and electrical machinery were increasing.Meanwhile,China was importing increasingly more energy and forest products.China has already become a net importer of natural resources and the ecological surplus of import keeps growing annually.It is therefore concluded that China＇s trade situation at the present stage would help improve the sustainability of the country＇s economic development.Based on the Stefan Gossling and other scholars＇ findings,the authors compared the trade footprint throughout 7 trade districts in the world in 2002.A conclusion can be drawn that as a net importer of EF in 2002,North America and Europe showed an ecological surplus in trade up to 78 ×106 hm2 and 23 ×106 hm2,respectively.The other 5 trade districts were found to be net exporters of EF,showing the largest EF deficit of -49×106 hm2 in Western Europe in international trade,and the smallest EF deficit of -2×106 hm2 occurred in the Asia-Pacific regions.An ecological importer has to be achieved at the expense of the ecological deficit from the other nations and regions.Trends of sustainable development are to enhance comprehensive utilization of resources,save energy,reduce emissions,and eventually relieve the pressure on the environment from international trade.