林火预警及实现方法

Method of forecasting and implementation of forest fire early warning

为建立适用于我国宏观区域的林火预警系统,以我国2000-2008年间发生的重大森林火灾为研究对象,利用MODIS数据估算森林可燃物的长势及含水量,与地理信息系统技术和数据库技术相结合,以火险指数作为预报林火发生等级的定量因子,研究并建立了林火预警模型;在商业遥感和GIS软件提供的二次开发平台下,利用Microsoft Visual Studio 2005语言,开发了林火预警系统。同时,利用选取的实验区及数据对预报方法和系统进行测试。结果表明:利用建立的林火预警系统所得的森林火险等级值,与实际发生的林火趋势基本一致;另外,火险指数可用作林火发生预警的定量分级因子。

In order to develop a forest fire early warning system applicable to the macro-regional condition of China,we selected a number of large-scale forest fires from 2000 to 2008 as our study objects,and estimated the growth and moisture content of forest fuel by using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer （ MODIS ） data.Based on a geographic information system （ GIS ） and database technique,we selected a forest fire danger index （ FFDI） as a quantifiable factor and developed a forecasting model for forest fire early warning.With the support of remote sensing and GIS software,a suitable forest fire early warning system was developed by using Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 language.The forecasting method and system was further validated by forest fire data.The results show that the FFDI produced by the system agrees with the trend in the incidence of actual forest fires and can be used as a quantifiable classification factor for forest fire early warning.