我国转型期服务业发展滞后现象研究——兼论人均GDP与服务业比重的相关性

Why Does China Service Industry Development Lag behind during Transition?

文章基于面板门槛回归模型,以人均GDP作为门槛变量,探讨在不同发展阶段,人均GDP与服务业就业比重的相关性。结果发现,无论处于哪个发展阶段,人均GDP均与服务业就业比重正相关,且随着跃入更高的发展阶段,二者的回归系数会更大且更显著。基于SFA模型的实证结果显示,在不同发展阶段,发展服务业均能通过吸纳就业和提高关联产业效率而促进国民经济效率提高,且经济越发达,服务业提升国民经济效率的功能越突出。统计分析结果显示,认为当前我国服务业比重低是正常现象的结论是缺乏经验事实支撑的,应充分认识服务业发展滞后的负面影响,鼓励其跨越发展。

This paper investigates the relevance of per capita GDP and the share of service sectors employment based on the threshold regression model, and applies the per capita GDP as the threshold variable. The result indicates that per capita GDP is positively correlated with the proportion of service sectors employment at any stage of development. The result got from SFA model shows that service industry development can promote the efficiency of the national economy through absorbing employment and improving the efficiency of related industries. Statistical analysis shows that the current low proportion of China＇s service industry is not a normal phenomenon. The conclusion is verified by the facts that the service industry development is lagged and we should pay more attention to the negative effect of this phenomenon and take some efficient measures.