基于AHP和模糊综合评判的玛纳斯河流域水资源安全评价

Appraisement of Water Resource Security in Manasi River Basin by Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

利用AHP(层次分析)和模糊综合评判法,结合2006年玛纳斯河流域土地利用和水资源数据库,并参考流域内各地自然、经济、社会统计资料,选取了4大类20个评价指标对水资源安全进行了综合评价。结果表明,玛纳斯河流域水资源处于不安全水平,其隶属度为0.4699,综合评分值为0.5291;生态安全指数和供需状况指数分别处于基本安全和比较安全水平,水资源量指数和社会经济指数皆处于不安全水平状态。因此,应提高流域的经济技术发展水平和水资源的利用效率,加强水资源的综合管理,控制人口增长,协调好上、下游之间及源流与干流之间的用水关系,以保障流域水资源的安全程度。

Based on the land use and water resource database and the statistic data about nature, economy and society situation, this paper synthetically appraised the water resource security in Manasi River Basin of Xinjiang according to 20 evaluation indices by analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results showed that the water resource in Manasi River Basin was unsafe, with the membership degree was 0. 4699 and the integrated evaluation score was 0. 5291 ; the ecology security was at a basically safe level and water supply-demand was relatively safe; water quantity and socio-economy was unsafe. To ensure the water resource security in Manasi River Basin, it is suggested to accelerate the native eco-nomic-technological development, enhance the utilizing efficiency and the general management of water resource, control the population growth, and harmonize the water use of upstream-downstream and head-stream-mainstream.