理解中国工业化与能源消费:基于计量经济模型的实证检验

Understanding the Relationship between Industrialization and Energy Consumption in China: Empirical Tests of Econometric Models

论文应用自回归分布滞后方法(ARDL)与多变量影响模型,分析了中国工业化与不同能源品种消费的关系以及改革开放以来能源强度的驱动机制。结果表明,能源总体消费是中国工业化的充分必要条件;就不同能源品种而言,煤炭消费是工业化的充要条件,但油气消费与非化石能源消费只是工业化的必要条件而非充分条件。不管是长期还是短期,除了非化石能源消费在短期对工业化具有逆向影响外,其他能源品种消费对工业化都具有直接推动作用。自改革开放以来,全要素生产率、工业化与能源政策作为影响能源效率的关键因素,对能源强度的降低具有直接推动效应;对外开放水平的提高有利于中国能源效率的提高,但其效果可能被其他变量所取代;能源价格对能源强度的影响有限,这可能与中国能源领域市场化程度低有关。

This paper estimates the relationship between China＇s industrialization and different types of energy consumption by the application of autoregressive distributed lag （ARDL） modeling approach, and discusses the driving factors of energy intensity since the reform and opening based on multivariate impacts analysis method. The results show that the overall energy consumption is a necessary and sufficient condition for China＇s industrialization; in terms of different types of energy, coal consumption is also a necessary and sufficient condition of industrialization, but the oil and gas consumption and non-fossil energy consumption are only a necessary condition for industrialization, but not a sufficient condition. For both long term and short term, except for the non-fossil energy consumption which has the reverse impact on industrialization, other types of energy consumption have direct roles in promoting industrialization. Since the reform and opening, the total factor productivity, industrialization level and energy policy have directly promoted the reduction of energy intensity as key factors affecting energy efficiency. Opening to the outside world assists to promote China＇s energy efficiency, but its effect may be replaced by other factors. Also energy prices have limited impact on energy intensity.