摘要
本文用计量经济学的方法通过对中国、日本、美国的时间序列分析和１９９０年的全球截面数据分析，探讨了经济增长与ＣＯ２排放的关系。并重点分析了人口增长、能源消费强度变化的人均碳排放的影响。分析表明从政策角度而言，人均碳排放与人均ＧＤＰ之间不存在Ｋｕｚｎｅｔｓ曲线。人口增长和人均ＧＤＰ的增加是人均碳排放增加的主要来源，而ＧＤＰ能源消费强度的下降则是碳排放减少的重要来源。
The paper explores the relationship between economic development and CO2 emission by the analysis for timeseries data of China,Japan and America and crosssection data in 1990 worldwide using the econometric modeling.And it concentrates on the impacts of population expansion and changes in GNP energy intensity on the per capita carbon emission. The analysis concludes,from the perspective of policy,that there is no Kuznets curve between per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP, economic development and population expansion are the main sources for carbon emission increase of the country,however,the decrease in energy consumption intensity devotes more to cutting down carbon emission.
基金
国家教委高校博士点基金
