基于Dirichlet先验分布的模糊可靠性增长模型研究

Fuzzy Reliability-growth Model Analysis Based on Dirichlet Prior Distribution

将模糊理论应用于基于Dirichlet先验分布的Bayes可靠性增长模型,提出了可靠性增长的模糊模型。在对Dirichlet先验分布函数研究的基础上,分析了先验参数的获取方法。针对某水冲压发动机可靠性增长试验使用Dirichlet先验分布模型进行了分析,给出了试验各阶段的先验分布和后验分布,并分析了与先验信息方差有关的参数对后验可靠度的影响。在此基础上,通过引入模糊变量,发展了模糊可靠性增长模型,得到了试验各阶段模糊可靠度。

A fuzzy reliability growth model was presented on the basis of a Bayesian reliability-growth model based on Dirichlet prior distribution using fuzzy theory. The method for determining prior parameters was studied using Dirichlet prior distribution. A metal/water reaction ramjet＇s reliability growth test data was analyzed using this distribution. The prior distribution and the posterior distribution at each test stage were presented. And the effect of the parameter related to prior information＇s variance on posterior reliability was analyzed. Fuzzy variable was introduced in the original model to build a fuzzy reliability growth model. Using the model,the fuzzy reliability at each stage was calculated.