中国农民和农民工的边缘化——基于农民工收入与数量等实证数据的分析

The Marginalization of the Chinese Peasants and Peasant-workers:——An Empirical Data Analysis Based on the Number and Income of Peasant-workers

利用我国改革开放以来关于农民工数量、农民收入、城乡收入差距以及农民工工资的历年统计数据,建立4个计量经济模型,分析的结果表明:城乡收入差距扩大会导致农民工数量的增加,农民工数量的增加会使农民工工资增加,农民工工资增加会使城乡收入差距扩大,农民收入的高低主要取决于政府的城乡、工农政策。4个统计模型的结果显示出了与一般发展经济学原理相悖的4个问题,且其中3个模型形成了一个恶性的因果积累循环。通过挖掘其深层次的原因,总结出问题的根源在于长期以来中国的二元经济发展战略使得农民群体的地位被边缘化并不断加强的结果。

The traditional economics theories have given explanations to the relationship of urban-rural income gap, the number of peasant-workers and farmers income. This paper attempts to verify these explanations by using related historical data of China since the reform and opening-up began. The results prove that ＂push-pull＂ theory is applicable in China, but the causal relationship between these variables and the sign of regression model coefficients are in contradiction with the traditional economics theory explanations. Through the excavation of its deep-seated reasons,the root problem is summed up as： China＇s dual status economic development strategy has marginalized the farmer groups and is continuing to intensifyit.