金融危机下湖北工业回暖研究

Research on the recovery of Hubei industrial economy in the global financial crisis

通过聚类对金融危机下湖北工业经济作出状态划分,利用时序分析预测湖北工业经济的运行趋势,指出其反弹趋势;利用行业增长速度的一阶差分序列推算出金融危机下各分行业的经济拐点和行业复苏能力,为湖北工业的进一步发展提出了政策建议。

In the current global financial crisis,the developing trend of industrial economy in Hubei Province was predicted based on time series analysis.In order to do that,we classified the economy with clustering analysis. The results show that there exists a trend of economy rebound in Hubei industrial economy,where the inflexion points of all industry branches were determined according to their first order difference sequences of growth speed,respectively.After potential analysis on economic rejuvenization of each industry affected by global financial crisis,policy suggestions were proposed on further development of Hubei industry.