消费者信心指数的干预模型

The intervention model on consumer confidence index

本文通过对消费者信心指数的分析,首先建立干预模型并进行了检验,然后根据此干预模型得出将来消费者信心指数的预报值,从而为未来经济政策的制定与调整以及进行定量分析提供理论依据.

In the present paper,we set up an intervention model for the consumer confidence index（in short, CCI） and make a test for the model,then we proceed a forecast to the future CCI based on the model.The forecast can provide theoretical support for the policy to be decided.