基于投影寻踪和BP神经网络的我国粮食安全的评价及预测

The evalution and forecast of china's food security based on projection pursuit and BP neural network

粮食安全问题关系着一个国家的稳定和安全,粮食安全是人们一直关注的焦点问题,所以能否及时准确的评价一个国家粮食的安全性,对于保障国家粮食安全具有重要的作用。本文采用投影寻踪模型对我国30年的粮食安全问题进行了评价并对未来7年的粮食安全问题进行预测,并用神经网络对该方法的判别效果进行了验证。研究表明过去近30年的粮食安全情况基本安全,并呈逐步好转趋势。

The food security to a country＇ s stability and safety has very important influence,which is a focal question that people always concern.In this paper,by means of projection pursuit we evaluate the food security over the past 30 years and forecast the food secutity in the coming 7 years.In the end,we verify the result by using BP neural network.The research shows that china＇s food security is OK over past 30 years and will be better in the future.