我国东北夏季气温年代际变化特征及与太平洋海温异常关系的研究

Inter-decadal variations of summer temperature in Northeast China and relationships with Pacific SSTA

利用1951—2008年东北地区夏季平均气温资料,分析了近58 a来东北地区夏季气温的变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:东北夏季气温存在明显年代际变化的阶段性特征和总体增暖的趋势。对我国东北夏季气温与太平洋海温的相关分析表明,太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)由冷位相转为暖位相后,我国东北夏季气温与同期赤道中东太平洋海温相关减弱、与黑潮区海温相关增强,我国东北夏季气温与前期各季太平洋海温相关分布差异很大,海温关键区及相关强度均有所改变,这种相关关系的转变可能是造成近几年来利用太平洋海温预测我国东北夏季气温不确定性的原因之一。

Based on mean summer temperature in Northeast China from 1951 to 2008,the trend and abrupt change of summer temperature were analyzed.The results show that inter-decadal characteristics of summer temperature are obvious.In general,summer temperature takes on the increasing trend.The relationships between summer temperature in Northeast China and Pacific sea surface temperature（SST） are discussed.It indicates that the correlation of summer temperature in Northeast China with summer SST of the middle-east Pacific becomes weak after Pacific decadal oscillation（PDO） changes from cold phase to warm phase,while that is strong with SST of Kuroshio current region.The correlations between summer temperature in Northeast China and earlier stage Pacific SST in different seasons exist the obvious difference,and the key areas of SST and relative intensity also change.These variations could become one of reasons leading to uncertainty of summer temperature forecast of Northeast China with Pacific SST in recent years.