能源约束与中国经济增长——基于能源“尾效”的计量检验

Energy Constraints and China's Economic Growth——Metrology Analysis Based on Energy "Tail Effect"

在经济增长"尾效"假说的基础上,对我国经济增长中能源约束程度进行了度量,结果显示不同能源品种对经济增长的制约程度有着明显的差异性,我国能源利用的主要矛盾并不是能源的总量约束,而是能源的结构性约束。能源的结构性矛盾已成为我国未来能源问题的软肋。

China＇s economy has entered a rapid growth period.Because of the limitations of the mode of economic growth,however,there are many constraints on it,including lack of energy and structure deviation.The two factors have become the most prominent bottleneck to development.In this paper,according to economic growth ＂tail effect＂ hypothesis,we analyzed the energy constraints on economic growth.The results showed that the principal contradiction in China＇s energy use is not the total amount of energy,but the structural problems of energy.The structural bound of energy will become the soft underbelly of China＇s future energy issues.