资金限制条件下的原油采购策略研究

Research on Procurement Strategies of Crude Oil with Financial Constraints

在对原油采购市场的复杂性和生产商面临的采购风险进行深入分析的基础上,综合考虑影响企业采购的因素,强调原油供应链中资金流的限制,引入合同组合管理的方法,构建了一个简单的原油供应链系统,并借助供应链Agent建模仿真技术实现了该原油供应链系统。仿真结果的分析证明,相比较于传统的数学模型、系统动力学等方法,Agent的自主性、适应性和分布性等特点更适合于描述此类难以求解的供应链复杂性问题。随着采购进程的演化,生产商Agent通过对油价和需求变化规律的学习给出基于预测的最优合同组合策略,该策略在保证利润最大化的同时能够有效控制采购风险,平衡库存采购成本和财务成本,增强企业的可持续发展能力。

On the basis of the in-depth analysis about the complexity of procurement market for crude oil and procurement risks that manufacturers may face,we build a simple supply chain system model.This model introduces the method of portfolio management and incorporates comprehensive factors that affect procurement,such as financial constraints in the supply chain.Then we run the model with the help of the agent technology for supply chain modeling and simulation.Analysis of simulation results shows that compared to traditional mathematics and system dynamics method,agent is better suited to describe the kind of complex problems which are hard to solve because of features of autonomy,adaptability and distribution.With the evolution of the procurement process,the manufacturer agent can get the portfolio strategy based on forecast through the learning of oil prices and demand fluctuations.The strategy is helpful to maximize profits and effectively control risks at the same time,balance procurement inventory cost and the financial cost so as to enhance the capacity for sustainable development.