摘要
指数平滑法是电力系统负荷预测的主要方法之一,该方法的准确性取决于平滑系数α.对采用厚近薄远原则与远近相同原则优选α进行对比研究,结果表明采用厚近薄远原则优选α有更好的结果.在此基础上,结合相关分析,给出了厚近薄远的具体方案,并给出了负荷预测的具体实例.
Exponential smoothing method is one of the main load forecasting methods for power system;the accuracy of the method depends on smoothing coefficient α.In this paper,a study of how to seek the best α is given.The results show that the use of principle of valueing near errors and contempting far errors can get a better model.On this basis,combined with correlative analysis,a method of how to value near errors and contempt far errors is proposed.A practical example of load forecasting is also shown here.
出处
《三峡大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
2010年第3期37-41,共5页
Journal of China Three Gorges University:Natural Sciences
关键词
负荷预测
指数平滑法
平滑系数
优选
load forecasting
exponential smoothing method
smoothing coefficient
optimum seeking