基于情景分析的上海浦东外高桥功能区总体规划大气环境评价

Atmospheric Environmental Assessment for Master Plan of Waigaoqiao Functional Area,Shanghai Pudong New Area

以上海市外高桥功能区为研究对象,采用ISC3模型软件模拟计算区域主要大气污染物SO2,NOx,PM10和特殊污染物的长期与不利气象条件下浓度贡献的空间分布,并结合区域总体规划,针对未来排放情况设置不同情景,预测2010和2020年的区域环境空气质量.结果表明:在基本情景下,2010年污染物长期平均与不利气象条件下的浓度贡献有所增加,2020年由于产业调整,污染物浓度贡献有所减少,但NOx的超标面积和暴露人口与现状相比均增加.在削减情景下,随区域污染治理水平的提高,污染物的浓度贡献均有大幅下降,尤其是2020年NOx的超标区域面积和暴露人口比例有较大幅度下降.实践表明,情景分析法可以在一定程度上降低评价的不确定性,为多方案比选提供一定的基础.基于GIS的超标区面积与暴露人口估算,有助于在浓度贡献预测的基础上,更好地评价区域大气环境质量对人群的影响,为环境管理与决策提供更为科学合理的依据.

The ISC3 model was used to simulate the air quality of Waigaoqiao Functional Area,including the spatial distributions of long-term and short-term concentrations of SO2,NOx and PM10 and special pollutants.According to Waigaoqiao master plan,two scenarios are set： the basis scenario and the reduction scenario.Based on the above two scenarios,the spatial distributions of long-term and short-term concentrations of pollutants in 2010 and 2020 after the industrial restructuring of Waigaoqiao were predicted.The results show that： on the basis scenario of 2010,the concentrations of pollutants will increase,but in 2020,they will decrease because of industrial restructuring.On reduction scenario,with the implementation of environmental protection measures,the concentrations of pollutants will significantly decreased,and both the exceeding standard area and percentage of exposed population of NOx will reduce.Based on the research work above,it can be concluded that scenario analysis could reduce the uncertainty of plan-level environmental assessment,and provided a base for scheme comparison.The analysis of exceeding standard area and exposed population using GIS will provide a better way to evaluate the impacts of regional air pollution,and will make environmental management more scientific and reasonable.