人口“乡—城”流动下城镇失业保险基金支出预测:以西安市为例

Forecast on Cities Unemployment Insurance Fund Expenditure under Migration Movement in "rural-city":A Case of Xi'an

本文运用人口发展方程与回归预测方法建立了人口"乡—城"流动规模测算模型,根据社会保障精算原理构建了人口"乡-城"流动下的失业保险基金支出测算模型;在此基础上,对2009-2020年西安市失业保险基金支出额进行了预测,结果表明,西安市失业保险基金支出总量年均递增12.93%,由2.67亿元增长到10.19亿元,其中,由"乡—城"人口流动引发的失业保险基金支出额从1232.75万元增长到2.58亿元,年均递增31.85%。

By using population growth equation and regression forecast method,this paper has established the model of scale for migration movement in ＂rural-city＂; according to social security actuarial principles,the forecast model of unemployment insurance fund expenditure under migration movement in ＂rural--city＂ has been constructed;Based on which, unemployment insurance fund expenditure for XiSan during 2009-2020 can be forecast. The results show that total expenditures of unemploy- ment insurance fund for Xi＇an increased at an average annual 12.93 percent, from 2.67 billion yuan to 1.019 billion yuan; of which, expenditures caused by migration movement in ＂rural-city＂ has increased from 12,327,500 yuan to 258 miUion yuan increasing at an average annual percent.