中国经济增长与通胀的随机冲击效应

The Impact Effects of Stochastic Disturbances to Economic Growth and Inflation in China

本文针对我国的实际经济背景,基于相关的经济理论,应用数据分解方法,从我国经济增长与通货膨胀中分解出随机冲击效应,在此基础上,度量随机冲击对经济增长和通胀的短期与长期效应。本文的结果表明:(1)样本期平均而言,我国遭遇的需求冲击为负,供给冲击为正;(2)需求冲击对产出具有短期正向"驼峰"效应,对通胀具有正向长期持久效应;供给冲击对经济增长具有正向持久效应,对通胀具有负向持久效应;(3)美国金融危机时期经济增长的快速下滑是负向需求冲击和供给冲击联合作用的结果,价格水平的下跌则是负向需求冲击的结果,2009年第二季度我国经济复苏主要是需求冲击的贡献。当前经济增长率中长期趋势成分还相对较低,复苏过程还不稳健。

This paper decomposes and measures the stochastic disturbances of economic growth and inflation based on the background of China＇s economy, and studies the temporary fluctuation and permanent effects of stochastic disturbances to economic growth and inflation. The results show that China encounters negative demand disturbance and positive supply disturbance average in sample period. Demand disturbances have a hump-shaped positive short effect to GDP and have positive permanent effects to inflation. Supply disturbances have negative permanent effects to inflation and have positive permanent effects to GDP. In the U. S. crisis period, the steady decline of economic growth is stem from negative demand disturbances and negative supply disturbances, and the negative demand disturbances lead to decline of inflation. In 2009Q2, Chinese economy realized recovery, the main reason of recovery was demand disturbance. The permanent components of economic growth are relatively low now and the recovery process is not steady.