我国对外反倾销威慑力能否有效抑制国际对华反倾销?

Can China's Anti-dumping Retaliation Ability for Deterrence Inhibit Anti-dumping Against China?

本文利用1981—2007年的国际对华反倾销数据和负二项回归方法,发现中国对外反倾销威慑和报复能力对国际对华反倾销产生了一定程度的抑制效应。此外还发现,宏观经济不是影响国际对华反倾销的主要原因;外国货币的升值会导致国际对华反倾销的增加;反倾销案件是国外利益集团要求政府对其实行贸易保护的结果。本文据此提出中国应维持汇率稳定,完善行业协会,降低对某些国家过高的出口集中度和适度对外反倾销的政策建议。

This paper investigates empirically the impact of China's anti-dumping retaliation for deterrence on anti-dumping against China over the period of 1981-2007. We find that China's anti-dumping deterrence and retaliation capability can inhibit anti-dumping against China effectively. Moreover,macro-economic factors are not major reasons that affect anti-dumping against China; the appreciation of foreign currency will increase anti-dumping against China; anti-dumping cases often result from the pressure that foreign interest groups exert on their governments. Based on above analyses,this paper puts forward suggestions that China should keep exchange rate stable,set up corresponding industry Association,reduce exorbitant export concentration to some countries and adopt modest antidumping policy.