我国进出口近似同步变动之谜--一个经济全球化的新解释

The Mystery of Synchronous Changes of Chinese Import and Export——An Explanation from Economic Globalization Perspective

不管是遭遇世界经济周期的冲击,还是受到人民币升值的冲击,我国进出口表现出近似同步变动的现象,对此传统理论欠缺解释力。本文从局部均衡模型的微观模型出发重新构建我国的进口方程,新的进口方程和传统的出口方程一起较好地解释我国进出口近似同步变动的现象,并指出当前进出口近似同步变动的根源在于经济全球化。研究结果还表明,人民币在一定幅度内的升值和世界经济衰退会使我国进出口较大幅度下降,但是对我国贸易顺差的影响小。

Traditional theory can't explain the fact that the import changes almost simultaneously with the export. This paper builds a partial equilibrium model to deduce import equation of China,which can explain this proposition. Furthermore,the paper indicates that synchronous changes of import and export result from economic globalization. Quantitative analyses show that global economic recession and RMB appreciation have comparatively greater impacts on export and import,while have little effect on trade surplus.