现代货币主义没落的方法论桎梏

Methodological Shackle Causing Comedown of Modern Monetarism

现代货币主义经济学是"二战"后由芝加哥大学的密尔顿.弗里德曼及其众多追随者们发展起来的,其理论基础是现代货币数量论。20世纪七八十年代,货币主义的实践在减缓美国经济增长压力、降低通货膨胀率方面取得了明显的成功。近年来伴随着金融创新工具的不断涌现,货币的周转率变得不再稳定,使得消费者行为方式的转变从根本上动摇了货币主义的方法论基础,货币主义开始走向衰落。实际上,现代市场经济的发展变化千姿百态,其复杂程度极高,而影响经济波动和社会就业变化的因素远不止货币这一种,因而采用单一规则的货币政策是无法长期维系经济的正常增长秩序的,现代货币主义的货币万能主张实际上是一种空想。

Modern monetarist economics was developed by Milton Friedman in Chicago University and his adherents after the Second World War, which is based on modern quantity theory of money. In 1970s and 1980s, the practice of monetarism was substantially successful in slowing economic growth and lowering inflation. With recent rushing emergence of financially innovational instruments, money turnover is not stable any more. As a result, the change of consumer behavior is fundamentally shaking the methodological basis of monetarism and hence monetarism begins to come down. Actually, modern market economy changes rapidly and takes on various complications and there are more forces than money that lead to economic fluctuation and employment changes. Under such environment, single rule of monetary policy cannot persistently guarantee a stable order to protect economic growth. Therefore, money omnipotence claimed by modern monetarism is merely an unrealistic dream.