我国消费需求增速动态过程的区制状态划分与转移分析

Regime Division and Regime Switching in the Process of China Consumption Growth Dynamic Process

本文利用马尔科夫区制转移模型,基于1979年1月至2009年8月期间我国社会消费品零售总额月度同比增长率数据来具体刻画和分析我国消费需求增速过程的时间路径变化特征,检验结果表明,我国消费需求增速动态过程可以划分为"低速消费区制"、"适速消费区制"和"高速消费区制",消费需求增速过程在不同时域区间内处于不同的区制状态,并在部分区间内体现出显著的持续性特征。我们发现,我国居民消费增速在1996年经济成功实现"软着陆"以后,呈现出较为稳定的态势,但是始终在"低速消费区制"与"适速消费区制"之间交替、徘徊。从2009年初至今,我国处于"适速消费区制",因此,我国经济政策操作重点仍应该集中于扩大消费需求以期拉动总体经济增长。

Based on the datas of January 1979 to August 2009 of total retail sales of China social consumer goods growth rate,this paper uses Markov regime-switching model to describe and analyze the growth rate of consumption in China.According to the result of estimation and test,dynamic process of growth in consumption can be classified as ＂low consumption regime＂,＂medium-speed consumption regime＂ and ＂high-speed consumption regime＂.The process of growth in consumption in different time intervals belongs to different regime,and reflects significant characteristics of continuity in some intervals.We find that consumption growth show a relatively stable situation after economy achieving ＂soft landing＂ in 1996,but it is always between the ＂low consumption regime＂ and ＂medium-speed consumption regime＂.From early 2009 to now,China is in ＂medium-speed consumption regime＂,so the economic policy operations still should be focused on promoting consumption to drive economic growth.