希腊杠杆撬动全球经济——希腊主权债务危机的演变、影响和未来发展

Greece Debt Crisis Levers the Global Economy——Analysis on the Evolution,Impact and Future Development of the Greece Sovereign Debt Crisis

本文在简要概述希腊主权债务危机近期演化的基础上,着重分析了希腊主权债务危机影响全球金融体系和实体经济的路径、时序、结构和程度,并结合国际学术界的深度研究成果探讨了希腊主权债务危机未来发展的几个重要问题。本文的主要结论是:从近期演变看,希腊主权债务危机的杠杆效应充分显现,全球金融风险的结构更趋复杂;短期内,希腊主权债务危机对实体经济的整体影响尚不明显;从长期看,主权债务危机则大幅加大了全球经济二次探底的风险。

This paper reviews the recent evolution of the Greece sovereign debt crisis, analyzes the path, timing and structure by which it affected the global financial system and real economy, and then puts forward several important issues about its future development. The main conclusion of this paper is that the Greece sovereign debt crisis has levered the global economy and complicated the financial risks. In the short term, the overall impact of the crisis on the real economy is not yet clear, but in the long term, the crisis has significantly increased the recession risk of the global economy.