农业水利基础设施建设投资主体的信用风险评估

Assessment of investor credit risk in agricultural hydraulic infrastructure

运用信用理论对农业基础设施投资的主体的信用风险进行评估.研究发现:信用变化指数对转置矩阵有很大的影响,它将影响着信用等级的变化.信用变化指数介于零这样的临界状态时有不同的违约状态,当信用质量指数大于零时,其信用价值上升;如果信用质量指数小于零,信用质量指数的等级就降低;如果等于零,信用等级保持正常的状态.并通过1995年至2000年某一地区农业水利基础设施投资提供的数据,计算出信用质量指数和信用变化指数均大于零,从而得出此项工程的信用风险较小,信用等级高.

Agriculture and water conservancy investment channels for a single source of funding constraints the development of agriculture in our country. It is an inevitable trend that implementation of marketoriented operation, and expanding investment channels of agricultural water conservancy project in the new period of China＇s agricultural development. The main purpose of this paper is the use of a credit theory to evaluate for investor in agricultural infrastructure. The study found： Credit change index has a great impact to transition matrix. It will affect the credit rating changes. Credit Change index ranged from zero when the critical state has a different default status, when the credit quality index greater than zero, the rise in the value of its credit; if the credit quality index is less than zero, the credit quality of the index on the lower level; if zero, credit rating is to maintain the normal status. And adopted from 1995 to 2000 of a regional agricultural water infrastructure investment is calculated examples, and found： Credit change index and credit quality index is greater than zero so as to arrive at the credit risk of the project smaller, high credit rating.