控制动作响应延迟下的汽车追尾风险评估

Risk assessment of rear-end accidents caused by the delay of controlling

以驾驶人认知响应不及时引发的追尾事故为研究对象,研究驾驶人车辆控制动作响应延迟对追尾事故的影响.定义了汽车驾驶人不响应概率函数,利用反应时间序列进行了求解,绘制了响应时间曲线.采用ANFIS理论,以前后车速差、后车车速、车间距及驾驶人不响应概率为输入,以汽车追尾概率为输出,建立追尾风险评估模型来预测汽车追尾可能性大小.实例分析表明,利用该模型预测汽车追尾风险大小是可行的.

The purpose is to study the relationship between the delay of controlling actions and the probability of rear-end accidents.A definition of the function of driver non-response probability is developed and its value is calculated by the index of driver response time,then the timing curve of drivers＇ response is made.The risk model of rear-end accidents is established to evaluate the probability of rear-end accidents,according to the theory of ANFIS.The input of the estimation model is the headway distance,velocity of the following vehicle,the difference between the leading and following vehicles and the non-response probability,the output is the probability of rear-end accidents.The example could show that it is feasible to assess the risk degree of rear-end accidents by this new model.