长吉图开发先导区城市空间扩展模拟预测——以延吉市为例

Urban Spatial Expansion Simulated and Forecast of the Forerunner Zone Urban of Changchun-Jilin-Tumen River Development Region

综合集成GIS、神经网络（ANN）、元胞自动机（CA）和灰色系统数学方法,构建一个灰色—USEM（Ur-ban Spatial Evolution Model）模型,并模拟预测延吉市2010-2020年间城市空间扩展状况.结果表明：2010-2020年间延吉市建城区面积将扩展至122.8 km2;城市扩展仍将沿着东、西、北3个方向进行,但主要集中在北部和东部地区.城市空间扩展将会呈现出由低速蔓延、填充式扩展转变为跳跃式快速扩展模式,南部、西北部将会出现许多条带间,且延吉市东部也会出现少量的跳跃地块.

A gray-USEM（Urban Spatial Evolution Model） was built,the model witch integrated the GIS,the neural network（ANN）,cellular automaton（CA） and the gray system mathematical method to simulated and forecast the Yanji urban spatial growth during 2010~2020 years.The result showed that the amount of Yanji urban built-up area will come to 122.8 km2 in 2020,it will still maintain the fast extended tendency,and the amount is big;the city will still expand along the three directions,east and west and north,but mainly concentrated in north and eastern part.The urban expansion will transform from spreading expansion characteristic of the low speed to the caper-like fast expansion pattern,there will be a number of inter-bands in south and north-west,and the eastern city of Yanji will also appear a small number of jumps land.