摘要
投资回收期作为评价房地产项目投资效果的一个重要经济指标,分析预测项目投资回收期是项目决策阶段的一个重要参考指标,研究投资回收期的预测方法具有重要的实践意义.基于房地产投资回收期的特征,通过对房地产项目投资回收期的无偏修正,运用加权马尔科夫预测模型应用于房地产投资回收期的预测.结合绍兴市2003年至2006年的典型房地产项目投资回收期的基础数据,证实加权马尔科夫模型预测房地产项目投资回收期的可行性,并得出房地产项目投资回收期的重现周期.
Recovery period of investment in real estate is one of very important indexes during the decision-making,and it is significant economic indicator to evaluate the effect of investment.According to the feature of recovery period of investment in real estate,and being unbiased amended,it was possible to predict recovery period of investment in real estate by Markov chain.Combinded with the initial data of typical real estate projects in Shaoxing city during 2003 to 2006,it was feasible to predict recover period of investment by models of Markov chain with weights.Furthermore,the model come out the return period of recovery period of investment.
出处
《湖南科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第2期63-66,共4页
Journal of Hunan University of Science And Technology：Natural Science Edition
基金
华东交通大学校立科研基金资助项目(07TM13)
江西省道路与铁道工程重点实验室资助项目
关键词
预测
回收期
加权马氏链
转移矩阵
平稳分布
predict
recovery period of investment
Markov chain with weights
transition matrix
stationary distribution
