气候变化条件下小兴安岭林区森林采伐面积模拟

Simulation of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing’anling Mountains under climate change

运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS6.0PRO,以采伐面积代替蓄积量作为采伐量,模拟了气候变化条件下,不同采伐强度交替采伐(交替时间分别为10、20、30年)情况下小兴安岭地区2000—2400年间当前采伐方案和11组模拟采伐预案下的森林采伐面积比.结果表明:不同采伐强度的交替进行,一定程度上可以增加研究区采伐面积;与当前采伐方案相比,短期内(10～30年),研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加3%～5%,中期(40～60年)内,研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加2.5%～7%,长期(70～100年)内,研究区模拟预案下每10年的采伐面积将增加3.5%～8%.总体上,研究区当前总采伐面积仍然过高,改变采伐模式虽然可以在一段时间内增加采伐面积,但不具有可持续性.若使研究区森林可持续发展,还需降低采伐强度、转变森林经营管理理念,变可持续林业产出为森林生态系统可持续管理.

By using the spatially explicit forest landscape model （LANDIS 6.0 PRO）,the percentages of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing’anling Mountains under current harvesting scenario and under 11 harvesting scenarios with alternating harvesting intensities （alternating time was 10,20 and 30 years,respectively） in 2000-2400 under climate change were simulated.Alternating harvesting intensity could increase the harvesting area.Comparing with current harvesting scenario,the simulated scenarios could increase the harvesting area by 3%-5% at short term （10-30 years）,2.5%-7% at medium term （40-60 years）,and 3.5%-8% at long term （70-100 years）.On the whole,the current total harvesting area was still high.Alternating harvesting-intensity could increase the harvesting area within a definite term,but the effect would be unsustainable.To have a sustainable development of forestry in the study area,it is necessary to reduce the harvesting intensity and change the forest management policy.