粮食——中国农业的永恒难题与主题

The Problem of Cereals: Eternal Theme and Difficult Problem of Chinese Agriculture

本文从中长期农业发展战略角度,探讨了我国的粮食问题,得出:(1)今后原粮消费总量和人均粮食消费量将呈刚性增长;(2)粮食总产和单产将继续增加,但增长率渐减;(3)当前粮食耕地被多方侵占而不断减少,播种面积对总产的贡献率呈增加趋势;(4)大国效应与国家安全隐患限制了中国过多依靠国际市场(尤其是西方大国)的粮食资源,今后要力争基本自给;(5)我国的资源并非极端贫乏,而是一种边缘匮缺状态,努力做到粮食基本自给的可能性是存在的;(6)粮食问题是中国农业的永恒难题与主题,必须未雨绸缪,从长计议。为此提出了全国粮食问题长治久安的五项建议。

Some results of study about problem of cereals in China from the strategic angle within a middle-long period have been obtained.（1）The demand for cereals both as total amount or per capita amount will be increased straightforwardly.（2）Both the total yield and unit area yield of cereals will be increased continuously in the future while the increase rate will be lowered gradually.（3）The amount of cultivated land has been decreased owing to the swallowing up in various ways and the contribution of crop area to the total yield of cereals has risen recently.（4）The big country effect and the consideration of national security would limit the import of cereals a great quantity from the west world markets and the policy of self-sufficient basically should be selected.（5）The amount of resources of China is not as＂extreme poverty＂ but as＂marginal inadequate＂ and there are the possibilities of self-sufficient basically through hard effort.（6）The problem of cereals is the eternal theme and difficult problem of Chinese agriculture and the foreground must be studied in advance.Five strategic proposes related to the cereals problem have been put forward.