模糊综合评价法在偏二甲肼罐区风险评价中的应用

Application of Fuzzy Overall Evaluation Method to Liquid Propellants Station Risk

针对偏二甲肼在储存过程中事故发生的多样性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,建立了偏二甲肼贮存罐区风险评价模型,通过层次分析法确定了各影响因素的权重,并运用模糊综合评价法对偏二甲肼贮存罐区进行了风险评价,结果表明:偏二甲肼贮存罐区风险为2级,风险较大;其影响因素中安全管理所占的权重最大,其次依次为人员素质、充装过量、罐区设备、存储设备。最后提出了预防事故的措施。

In the light of the variety,complexity and uncertainty of the causes of the UDMH accident during storage,a safety evaluation model of UDMH store was set up. By analytic hierarchy process method which was used to confirm the evaluation factor weight and by overall evaluation method which, based on the fuzzy analysis, was used to evaluate the risk grade, the accident risk evaluation result of UDMH storage was finally obtained. The evaluation result indicates that the risk grade is the second,which means a ＂bigger＂ risk and a hazard process. And the key factor is the safety administration, followed by human ability, over loading, station equipment and storage equipment. Finally, some advices to prevent accidents are given.