美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响

An Empirical Study on the Effects of American Financial Crisis on China's Export

本文选取中国与G7国家双边贸易数据,构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国金融危机导致G7国家经济陷入衰退,失业率上升、金融市场动荡和国内需求萎缩,由此带来的贸易传播效应给中国出口贸易带来了较为严重的负面影响。从具体的传递渠道来看,G7国家实际GDP指数下降、股票价格指数下跌和人民币实际汇率的波动对中国出口贸易的负面影响较为显著;而G7国家失业率增加对中国出口贸易的影响较小且并不显著。

Using dynamic panel data model based on China-G7 bilateral trade statistic data,this paper studies the effects of American financial crisis on China＇s export. The result shows that the American financial crisis has lead the G7 economies to a recession,rising of unemployment rate,financial market turbulence,and shrinking domestic demand. These have caused trade contagion effect and have had serious negative effects on China＇s export. As far as the transmission channels are concerned,the decline of growth rate and stock price index of G7 economies,and the volatility of the real exchange rate of RMB have had remarkable negative effects on China＇s export,while the effects of rising unemployment rate of G7 economies on China＇s export are insignificant.