将外国商业存在引入国际贸易统计--针对中国对外货物贸易统计的研究与数据重估

Introducing Foreign Commercial Presence into Statistical System of International Trade——Study and Reevaluation for China

货物进出口贸易数据是衡量中国经济的重要指标,在全球化背景下,跨国公司在世界范围内布置生产链,通过外国商业存在拓展了传统意义上的跨境贸易,由此突显出传统跨境贸易统计的不适应性。本文分析了直接投资所引起的附属机构的国别属性问题;搭建了从跨境贸易统计到属权贸易统计的基本框架以及调整方法;最后集中针对中国货物进出口贸易进行了分步、分口径的调整测算,并系统发掘了调整过程所包含的信息,为评价中国货物进出口贸易提供了不同的图景。

The data of export and import of goods are important indicators to measure the Chinese economy. Multinational enterprises arrange the chain of production all over the world, so the commercial presences broaden the coverage of international trade which makes the statistical system of international trade does not reflect the real situation. The paper analyzes the ascription problem of foreign affiliates produced by foreign direct investment, constructs the basic framework of the statistical system of international trade which based on ownership and the method to adjust the statistical system of international trade which based on residency to the new system, and finally re-evaluate the export and import of goods for China by different coverage of foreign affiliates step by step.