国际油价冲击对中国宏观经济的影响

Impact of International Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy

本文运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,研究了国际油价波动对我国宏观经济所产生的动态冲击效应。实证研究发现:国际油价上涨确实对产出有逆向影响,但冲击后的产出变化在回归到零值后会越过零值继续上升;国际油价上涨对CPI有正向影响,但影响不显著,且CPI并不会在当期就对油价冲击做出响应,而是有一个相当的滞后期,在达到一个高点之后慢慢下降,逐渐回归到0值,但在达到0值后还会继续向下;国际油价上涨对一年期存款利率基本没有影响。针对造成这种实证结果的原因,本文最后给出了相应的解释和政策建议。

For a long time, oil price shocks are often accompanied by severe turbulence of economy and society, which makes the impact of international oil price shocks on Macroeconomy an increasingly important research topic. In this paper, the structure of vector autoregressive （SVAR） model is used to investigate the dynamic impact effect of international oil price fluctuation on China＇s macroeconomy. The main conclusions are ： 1 ） International oil price rise indeed has a negative impact on output, the changes in output value will gradually return to zero and continue to rise across zero, which is determined by china＇s special pricing mechanism; 2） International oil price rise has a positive impact on CPI, but the impact is little, the reasons are China＇s special oil consumption structure, price transmission mechanism and CPI＇s weight structure; 3） Basically, international oil price rise has no impact on the one-year deposit interest rates, because China always implements the monetary policy by cutting interest rates to stimulate economic for a very long time, however, the monetary policy does not respond to international oil price shocks.