摘要
本研究构建了一个动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算中国产业振兴中生产率变化的经济影响。主要结论:各产业的TFP的长期增长能促进国内生产总值的增长,所带来的增长效应都很高。振兴规划中的机电、电力、物流、化学、交通运输产业的TFP增长的乘数效应很大。技术进步对产业振兴规划中资本密集型产业的物质要素资本投入替代作用明显。走依靠技术进步的创新发展之路,才能科学有效地实施产业振兴规划,推进"两型社会"的建设和低炭经济发展。
A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） Model is constructed to evaluate quantitatively economic consequences of Industrial Revitalization＇ s productivity changes. The main results are as follows：the industries TFP long-run growth can promote GDP growth, which brings higher growth effect. There are very big multiplier effects in Mechanical Electronic Equipment industry, Electricity industry, Logistic industry, Chemical industry and transportation industry. We fined that technological progress has a strong substitution effect of capital in Capital Intensive Industry. China should take path of innovation development to effectively implement Industrial Revitalization plan, and to promote Construction of ＂Two-Oriented＂ Society and Development of low-carbon economy.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期45-51,共7页
Statistical Research
基金
浙江工商大学产业经济学学科(省重点学科)经费资助研究成果
