高考志愿录取概率模型研究

Matriculate probability model of national college entrance examination

高考是目前我国教育体制中最重要的考试之一,它关系到千万考生的切身利益,而志愿填报是其中的一个重要环节。采用概率模型的形式来描述高考志愿的录取情况,首先分析了各所高校录取分数的分布情况;接着探讨了考生成绩的标准化问题,在此基础上对历史数据进行了处理;然后提出了用矩阵的形式来存储历史数据,并给出了录取概率的计算方法;最后用湖南省2008年度的录取真实数据对模型进行了检验,实验结果表明该模型是合理的和可行的。

In educational system,the national college entrance examination is one of the best important examinations until to-day.It affects the benefits of thousands of students.During the entrance examination,choosing fit volent is a very important step.This paper introduces a probability model to describe the situation of a student passing the entrance examination.It analyzes the distribution of the scores of matriculates in every college first,and then discusses the standardization method of the examinees＇scores,and deals with the history data through it.Afterwards,the matrix is introduced to store the history data,and how to compute the matriculate probabilities is described.At last,the real matriculate data of Hunan province in 2008 is used to check this model,and the result of this experiment shows the model is rational and feasible.