粮食国际贸易对区域水资源可持续利用的影响

Impact of International Trade of Grain on Sustainable Utilization of Regional Water Resource in China

在构建粮食灌溉用水对区域水资源影响的压力指数的基础上,本文匡算了粮食国际贸易带来的水资源要素流动量,并分析了粮食国际贸易所带来的水资源要素流动对区域农业水资源压力指数的影响程度。结果表明:1999～2007年中国农业水资源压力指数的平均值为0.2767,有23个省(区、市)的水资源利用处于可持续状态,8个省(区、市)的水资源利用处于不可持续状态。同期,中国水资源要素累计出口量为420.35亿立方米,水资源要素累计进口量为2039.31亿立方米,19个省(区、市)表现为水资源要素的净进口,其余12个省(区、市)表现为水资源的净出口。粮食国际贸易所带来的水资源要素流动对中国农业水资源压力指数具有明显的影响,进而影响了水资源可持续利用的状态。

After constructing the pressure index of irrigation water for grain production on regional water resource,this paper calculated the flow amount of water resource which was resulted from the international trade of grain,and analyzed the effects of water resource flow resulted from the international trade of grain on regional agricultural water resource pressure.The results indicated that the average value of agricultural water resource pressure index was 0.2767 during 1999～2007,and water resources utilization was sustainable in 23 provinces and was unsustainable in 8 provinces.During the same period,the accumulated amount of export water resource was 42.04 billion cubic meters,and the accumulated amount of import water resource is 203.93 billion cubic meters.Meanwhile,the water resource flow which was resulted from the international trade of grain showed up net import in 19 provinces whereas net export in other 12 provinces.The water resource flow which was resulted from the international trade of grain has obvious effect on the pressure index of agricultural water resource and farther on utilization state of regional water resource.