基于灰色系统模型的银川市耕地资源人口承载力研究

Study on Cultivated Land Resources and Population Carrying Capacity of Yinchuan City Based on Gray System Model

介绍了银川市概况以及其耕地、粮食和人口变化特征,探讨了人均耕地、粮食阀值的确定,建立了人口、耕地、粮食预测GM（1,1）模型,并运用该模型对银川市2009~2020年耕地、粮食总产量、总人口进行分析预测,提出了坚持耕地使用集约化、合理控制城市人口增长等对策建议,以期解决耕地资源人口承载力问题。

The general situation and variation characteristics of cultivated land,food and population of Yinchuan City were introduced,the determination of cultivated land per capita,food threshold was discussed,the GM（1,1） model was established to analyze and predict cultivated land,total grain yield,population in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2020.Several countermeasures were put forward,such as stick to intensive use of cultivated land and rational control of urban population etc.,so as to resolve arable land resources population carrying capacity.