汇率变动对出口产品结构的影响——基于出口产品国内附加值的分析

The Impacts of Exchange Rate on the Structure of Exports:An Analysis based on the Different Domestic Value-added

传统汇率理论研究中对汇率和出口产品结构关系的关注较少。现有研究从理论上提出汇率变动对出口产品结构的影响与不同产品所使用的本国投入(也可称国内附加值)有关,国内附加值越高的产品其相对竞争力将随本币升值而降低,反之亦然。本文通过模型推导验证了这种观点。然而,在中美、中欧双边贸易中,计算机、服装、化肥三种代表性产品出口比重的实际检验结果却与理论研究和模型推导相反。文章最后对这种异常现象进行了讨论,并提出了改进和拓展方向。

Traditional theory about exchange rate paid little attention to the impacts on export structure. Current researches have theoretically pointed out that the impact is related to different products that use different domestic inputs. With a currency appreciation,the higher the domestic value-added,the lower the competitiveness of the products,and vice versa. This paper verifies the view by model deduction. However,in the bilateral trade between China and U.S.A.,China and European Union,the results of the exporting proportion of three typical products——computer,clothing and chemical fertilizer are opposite to the model. Finally,the abnormal phenomenon has been discussed and further improvement and extension has been pointed out.