中国货物贸易对于服务贸易的促进作用——基于服务贸易引力模型的实证分析

The Stimulative Effect of Chinese Commodity Trade on Its Service Trade:An Empirical Analysis based on Service Trade Gravity Model

本文利用中国和22个OECD成员国家和地区之间2002～2006年双边服务贸易和货物贸易的面板数据,构建服务贸易引力模型实证研究了中国货物贸易对于服务贸易的作用。实证结果显示,中国的货物贸易对于服务贸易起到了一定程度的促进作用,并且这一作用主要表现为货物贸易对于服务进口的促进,货物贸易对于服务出口的作用则不显著;同时,货物贸易对于服务贸易的促进作用尚未得到充分有效发挥,相对于贸易伙伴国的经济发展水平而言,这一作用十分有限。本文最后对这一结果产生的原因进行了分析,并提出了促进货物贸易和服务贸易协调发展的相关对策建议。

Utilizing the panel data of bilateral service trade and commodity trade between China and the 22 member countries and areas of OECD during 2002 and 2006,the service trade gravity models are set up to empirically study the effects of Chinese commodity trade on its service trade. It is showed that Chinese commodity trade promotes the development of its service trade to a certain degree,which is mainly exhibited by the stimulative effect of the commodity trade on service import,while the function of commodity trade on service export is not significant. Meanwhile,the commodity trade has not fully effectively promoted the development of the service trade,and compared with the economic development level of the trade partners,this stimulative effect is quite limited. Finally,the causes of this result are analyzed,and relevant countermeasures are put forward to promote the coordinated development of commodity trade and service trade.