摘要
本文采用结构向量自回归模型识别了东亚地区的需求冲击和供给冲击,并将冲击对称性分析结果与20世纪80年代的欧盟国家进行横向比较,以揭示东亚地区经济一体化所处水平,从而判断该地区进行深入货币合作的经济基础及可行性。研究发现,与欧元流通前欧洲经济一体化水平相比,当前东亚地区无论在冲击相关性、冲击幅度,还是应对冲击的调整速度上均优于欧洲当时水平,该地区已经具备开展诸如双边汇率机制等较高层次货币合作的基础和条件。
This paper applies the structure vector auto-regression (VAR) model to identify the demand and supply shock in East-Asia and compare their effects from East-Asian asymmetric shocks with that of European countries in 1980s in order to reveal real level of East-Asian economic integration for judging economic foundation and feasibility of East-Asian currency cooperation. The study shows that there are better relevance,the scale and adjusting speed of the shocks in East-Asia than that in Europe before the Euro birth,so East-Asia has good conditions and foundation to enter higher phase of currency cooperation,such as setting up bilateral exchange rate mechanisms.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期82-86,共5页
World Economy Studies
基金
2009年北京师范大学青年教师人文社科研究基金
