我国公共投资对私人投资影响关系研究

Study on the Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment in China and Their Relationship

公共投资对私人投资既有可能表现"挤入效应",也有可能表现出"挤出效应",根据经验模型和我国历史数据进行分析,我国公共投资对私人投资主要表现为挤出效应。从全球的公共投资数据比较结果来看,进一步印证了我国公共投资规模较大,可能对私人投资呈挤出效应这一结论。但从近期数据分析,我国公共投资率目前可能正处于下降阶段,这与其他国家公共投资的一般发展规律相符。

Public investment may have the ＂crowd in＂ or ＂crowd out＂ effect on private investment. In China, the public investment has the effect of ＂crowd out＂ on the private investment according to the analysis of empirical model and historical data, What＇s more, based on the comparative analysis of public investment around the world, we can make the confirmation that the effect of public investment over private investment is ＂crowd out＂. But the public investment ratio is on the decline, which conforms to the general development law of public investment of other countries.