一种基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目风险评估方法

A Kind of Risk Evaluation Method based on Bayesian Networks for Construction Projects

针对大型工程建设项目风险评估的实际需求,为对影响进度的风险做好预测,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目风险评估模型及推理算法。算法在基于概率传播和更新的贝叶斯网络推理中引入项目管理中分配给相应角色任务的最早开始时间,最晚结束时间等约束受限资源的风险评价概率因子。仿真结果表明,采用上述方法可得出影响进度的风险因素的原因分析鱼形图,有利于积极预防项目建设中不利情况的发生。

According to the requirements of risk evaluation process of Lager Construction Project,Bayesian Networks Risk Evaluation Simulating Model and its implement reasoning algorithm for Construction Project is put forward. Role - task assignment mechanism,including its earliest latest time,are applied to probability spreading and updating algorithm in Bayesian Networks reasoning.Simulating results show that according to this method reason analysis fish - charts can be gained which demonstrates those schedule impact facts in lager - scale construction project.This method can not only evaluate current risk,but also be in favor of actively preventing disadvantage instance happen.