中间产品进口、出口多样化与贸易顺差——理论模型及对中国的经验分析

Intermediate Inputs Import,Export Diversification and Trade Surplus:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Case of China

文章建立以贸易差额为研究对象、中间产品进口等为主要解释变量的理论和计量模型，然后运用Johansen协整分析法、似不相关回归估计法等对中国在1992～2008年期间中间产品进口增加对贸易差额的影响进行实证研究。结果表明：产品内分工背景下，中国中间投入品进口的增加通过“出口产出能力扩张效应”和“出口多样化效应”对贸易顺差产生了显著的积极影响。

Based on the model that trade surplus is used as the dependent variable while the import of intermediate inputs as the main explanatory variable, and using Johansen co-integrating technique and seemingly unrelated regression equations, this paper investigates the impact of intermediate inputs import on the trade surplus of China. The results show that under the background of intra-product division, the increase of import of intermediate inputs has a positive impact on China＇s trade surplus through the effects of export production capacity expansion and export diversification. Accordingly, it proposes some policy recommendations.