广东民营企业对外贸易对经济增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Private Enterprises’Foreign Trade on the Economic Growth in Guangdong

文章采用1994～2008年广东民营企业对外贸易与经济增长的相关数据，对两者的关系进行了实证分析。首先进行了贡献率和拉动度分析，发现广东民营企业出口、进口对经济增长均有较大的贡献率和拉动度。然后运用计量经济学的方法对两者的关系进行了检验，结果表明，广东民营企业对外贸易与经济增长存在长期稳定的关系，出口、进口和进出口都对经济增长有一定的促进作用，且出口、进口和进出口都是GDP的格兰杰原因。

By using the related data from 1994 to 2008, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the two variables of private enterprises＇ foreign trade and economic growth in Guangdong. Firstly, with the analysis of contribution rate and promotion rate, it finds that the export and import of Guangdong private enterprises bring a big contribution rate and promotion rate towards the economic growth. Then, it utilizes the method of econometrics to test the relation of the two variables. The result demonstrates that there exists a long- term and stable relationship between the foreign trade of Guangdong private enterprises and the economic growth; the export, import and net export have some promotion effects on the economic growth; all the export, import and net export are the Granger causes of GDP. Lastly, according to the result of the statistic analysis, it puts forward several corresponding suggestions to promote private enterprises ＇ foreign trade in Guangdong.