供给冲击、需求冲击与经济周期效应——基于中国数据的实证分析

Aggregate Demand Disturbances,Aggregate Supply Disturbances and Business Cycles in China:An Empirical Study

本文研究两类基本宏观冲击——供给冲击和需求冲击——对产出和通货膨胀的动态效应,并据此分析经济周期波动。我国的经验证据表明:第一,供给冲击会引起产出增长与当期通货膨胀负相关,而需求冲击会引起产出增长与当期通货膨胀正相关。第二,需求冲击下产出缺口和通货膨胀正相关——这与菲利普斯曲线一致,不过供给冲击下产出缺口与通货膨胀间关系并不明显。第三,供给冲击对产出增长的影响力度相对更强,而需求冲击对通货膨胀的影响力度则更强。这解释了经验中经常观测到通货膨胀顺周期特征。这一结果意味着通过总需求管理政策容易调控通货膨胀,却难以调控经济增长速度。因此,政府和货币当局应慎用财政政策和货币政策刺激经济增长,谨防其通货膨胀效应。

This paper decomposes the dynamics of output and inflation into the aggregate demand and supply disturbances, and analyzes the business cycles. Using Chinese data we empirically concluded that firstly, demand disturbances led to positive correlation between output growth and inflation while supply disturbances led to negative correlation. Secondly, demand disturbances also led to positive correlation between output gap and inflation, which is consistent with Phillips curve. However, we only find weak evidence of their negative correlation under supply disturbances. Thirdly, the short-term dynamics of inflation is largely due to demand disturbance while that of output growth are largely due to supply disturbance, which explains the frequently observed procyelical feature of inflation. The resuh also means that it＇s easy to control inflation, but difficult to control re- al output growth, by aggregate demand management policy, such as tax and monetary policy.