中国通货膨胀的决定因素

What Determine China's Inflation?

本文研究了我国通货膨胀的决定因素。我们分别运用向量误差修正模型(VECM)和结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)分析了月度同比和月度环比数据。研究表明,过剩流动性、产出缺口、房价和股价对通胀会产生正向影响。结构脉冲响应分析表明冲击的影响主要反映在前5个月,10个月后基本消失。我们发现,过剩流动性和产出缺口是影响通胀的重要因素。考虑到资产价格对通胀的溢出效应,中央银行应密切关注资产价格走势。同时,管理流动性的措施仍然是控制通胀的主要手段,然而进一步推进利率和汇率的自由化进程至关重要。

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in China. The analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices and stock prices positively affecting inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after 10 months. The effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are critical.