马尔科夫模型在合肥市景观格局动态模拟及预测中的应用

Application of Markov model on the dynamic simulation and prediction of landscape pattern of Hefei city

以1985年和1995年的合肥市土地利用现状图为基础,利用GIS软件Arcview,分别采取5 m2和10 m22个不同粒度,确定出合肥市1985~1995年间的面积转移矩阵和转移概率。依据马尔科夫（Markov）模型,利用Matlab软件,以10年为一个步长,对合肥市景观格局动态进行了模拟与预测,并与实际值进行比较。结果表明,预测值与实际值吻合程度较高,方差小。按照一级土地分类,可以应用马尔科夫模型预测土地景观类型动态变化。用5 m2粒度分析得到的结果优于10 m2粒度分析得到的结果。用此方法在5 m2粒度下对合肥市的景观格局做出模拟和预测,为合肥市土地资源可持续利用和环境保护提供依据。

Based on the maps of 1985 and 1995 land utilization of Hefei,and adopting two different grain size of 5 m2 and 10 m2 respectively,the transfer matrix of area and the transition probability of Hefei between 1985 and 1995 were determined using GIS software Arcview.Based on Markov model and Matlab software,taking 10 years as a length of stride,the dynamic simulation and the prediction of the landscape pattern of Hefei city were carried on and compared with the actual value of 1995.The result showed that fitting degree between predicting value and actual value was high.According to first-class land classification,forecasting dynamic change of landscape type by Markov model was feasible.The result obtained with the 5 m2 grain size was more precise than that of 10 m2 grain size.Finally,the simulation and prediction of landscape pattern of Hefei in the future were made by this method with 5 m2 grain size,which will provide the basis for sustainable use of land resource of Hefei city.