长三角地区固定资产投资与经济增长的关系

The Relationship Between Fixed Asset Investment and Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta

长三角地区1978—2008年GDP和固定资产投资的协整检验和误差修正模型(ECM)分析结果表明,固定资产投资对长三角地区经济增长有很大的拉动作用,二者之间存在着长期稳定关系和动态均衡机制。因此,长三角地区未来的固定资产投资仍需保持适度的规模和速度,并重视提高消费需求和强化固定资产投资的导向作用,以实现该地区经济的可持续发展。

The cointegration test and error correction model （ECM） of GDP and fixed asset investment from 1978 to 2008 in the Yangtze River Delta shows that the fixed asset investment had a significant effect on propelling economic growth in the region, and there are a long-run steady relationship and a dynamic balance mechanism between GDP and fixed asset investment. Therefore, the fixed asset investment in the region should still be maintained at a certain scale and speed, though attention should be paid to the satisfaction of consumers＇ demands and the guiding of fixed asset investment so as to realize the sustainable development in the region.